Live prediction market odds for Adrian Mannarino vs. Daniel Merida. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-03
Adrian Mannarino vs. Daniel Merida — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-03. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Daniel Merida leads the “Adrian Mannarino vs. Daniel Merida” event at 77.8% implied probability, followed by Adrian Mannarino at 22.8%. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.5% spread.
Adrian Mannarino vs. Daniel Merida is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Daniel Merida leads at 78% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Adrian Mannarino at 23%.
Daniel Merida currently leads at 78% implied probability. Behind Daniel Merida, Adrian Mannarino at 23% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.5% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Daniel Merida: 78¢ on Kalshi, 78¢ on Polymarket. Adrian Mannarino: 23¢ on Kalshi, 23¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.5% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 78¢ means the market estimates a 78% probability that Daniel Merida will be the outcome. Buying one share at 78¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 28% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
Daniel Merida
77.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Daniel Merida wins the Merida vs Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Merida vs Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Adrian Mannarino in the Bucharest Open, scheduled for April 2 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Adrian Mannarino. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Mannarino' if Adrian Mannarino advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
