Live prediction market odds for Adrian Mannarino vs. Ignacio Buse. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-22
Adrian Mannarino vs. Ignacio Buse — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-22. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Ignacio Buse leads the “Adrian Mannarino vs. Ignacio Buse” event at 71.5% implied probability, followed by Adrian Mannarino at 29.5%. A 23.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Adrian Mannarino vs. Ignacio Buse is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Ignacio Buse leads at 72% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Adrian Mannarino at 30%.
Ignacio Buse currently leads at 72% implied probability. Behind Ignacio Buse, Adrian Mannarino at 30% are the next closest contenders. The 23.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Ignacio Buse: 83¢ on Kalshi, 60¢ on Polymarket. Adrian Mannarino: 19¢ on Kalshi, 40¢ on Polymarket. The 23.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 72¢ means the market estimates a 72% probability that Ignacio Buse will be the outcome. Buying one share at 72¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 39% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Ignacio Buse
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Ignacio Buse wins the Buse vs Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Buse vs Mannarino professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Ignacio Buse and Adrian Mannarino in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 22, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Buse" if Ignacio Buse wins by 2 or more sets than Adrian Mannarino, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Mannarino." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
71.5% avg
