Live prediction market odds for Alex Molcan vs. Emilio Nava. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-12
This market resolved on 2026-04-12. Alex Molcan was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 72%.
Alex Molcan vs. Emilio Nava — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-12. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Alex MolcanWINNER | 99% | 45% |
Emilio Nava | 1% | 56% |
Alex Molcan vs. Emilio Nava was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Alex Molcan led the market at 72% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Emilio Nava at 28%.
Alex Molcan held the lead at 72% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Alex Molcan, Emilio Nava at 28% were the next closest contenders. The 54.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Alex Molcan: 99¢ on Kalshi, 45¢ on Polymarket. Emilio Nava: 1¢ on Kalshi, 56¢ on Polymarket. The 54.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 72¢ meant the market estimated a 72% chance that Alex Molcan would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 72¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 39% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Emilio Nava wins the Nava vs Molcan professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Munich Qualification Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Nava vs Molcan professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Munich Qualification Final after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Emilio Nava and Alex Molcan in the BMW Open, Qualification, scheduled for April 12 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Emilio Nava' if Emilio Nava advances against Alex Molcan. This market will resolve to 'Alex Molcan' if Alex Molcan advances against Emilio Nava. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alex Molcan
71.8% avg
