Live prediction market odds for Alexandre Muller vs. Otto Virtanen. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-12
This market resolved on 2026-04-12. Otto Virtanen was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 64%.
Alexandre Muller vs. Otto Virtanen — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-12. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Otto VirtanenWINNER | 99% | 30% |
Alexandre Muller | 1% | 71% |
Alexandre Muller vs. Otto Virtanen was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Otto Virtanen led the market at 64% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Alexandre Muller at 36%.
Otto Virtanen held the lead at 64% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Otto Virtanen, Alexandre Muller at 36% were the next closest contenders. The 69.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Otto Virtanen: 99¢ on Kalshi, 30¢ on Polymarket. Alexandre Muller: 1¢ on Kalshi, 71¢ on Polymarket. The 69.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 64¢ meant the market estimated a 64% chance that Otto Virtanen would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 64¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 56% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Otto Virtanen wins the Virtanen vs Muller professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Barcelona Qualification Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Virtanen vs Muller professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Barcelona Qualification Final after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Otto Virtanen and Alexandre Muller in the Barcelona Open, Qualification, scheduled for April 12 at 6:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Otto Virtanen' if Otto Virtanen advances against Alexandre Muller. This market will resolve to 'Alexandre Muller' if Alexandre Muller advances against Otto Virtanen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Otto Virtanen
64.3% avg
