Live prediction market odds for Arthur Rinderknech vs. Joao Fonseca. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-08
This market resolved on 2026-04-08. Joao Fonseca was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 74%.
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Joao Fonseca — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-08. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Joao FonsecaWINNER | 99% | 49% |
Arthur Rinderknech | 1% | 51% |
Arthur Rinderknech vs. Joao Fonseca was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Joao Fonseca led the market at 74% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Arthur Rinderknech at 26%.
Joao Fonseca held the lead at 74% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Joao Fonseca, Arthur Rinderknech at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 50.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Joao Fonseca: 99¢ on Kalshi, 49¢ on Polymarket. Arthur Rinderknech: 1¢ on Kalshi, 51¢ on Polymarket. The 50.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 74¢ meant the market estimated a 74% chance that Joao Fonseca would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 74¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 35% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Joao Fonseca
74.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Arthur Rinderknech wins the Fonseca vs Rinderknech professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Fonseca vs Rinderknech professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Joao Fonseca and Arthur Rinderknech in the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, scheduled for April 8 2026. This market will resolve to "Fonseca" if Joao Fonseca wins by 2 or more sets than Arthur Rinderknech, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Rinderknech." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
