Live prediction market odds for Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Rafael Jodar. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-15
This market resolved on 2026-04-15. Rafael Jodar was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Rafael Jodar — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-15. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Rafael JodarWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1% | 0% |
Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Rafael Jodar was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Rafael Jodar led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 1%.
Rafael Jodar held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Rafael Jodar, Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 1% were the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Rafael Jodar: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Camilo Ugo Carabelli: 1¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Rafael Jodar would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Rafael Jodar
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins the Jodar vs Ugo Carabelli professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Barcelona Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Jodar vs Ugo Carabelli professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Barcelona Round Of 16 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Barcelona Open, originally scheduled for April 15, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Jodar” if Rafael Jodar wins the first set. It will resolve to “Carabelli” if Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.
