Live prediction market odds for Daniel Merida vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-29
Daniel Merida vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-06-29. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Daniel Merida leads the “Daniel Merida vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli” event at 50.8% implied probability, followed by Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 49.3%. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.5% spread.
Daniel Merida vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Daniel Merida leads at 51% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 49%.
Daniel Merida currently leads at 51% implied probability. Behind Daniel Merida, Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 49% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.5% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Daniel Merida: 51¢ on Kalshi, 51¢ on Polymarket. Camilo Ugo Carabelli: 49¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.5% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 51¢ means the market estimates a 51% probability that Daniel Merida will be the outcome. Buying one share at 51¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 96% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Daniel Merida
50.8% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins the Ugo Carabelli vs Merida professional tennis match in the 2026 Wimbledon Men Singles Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Ugo Carabelli vs Merida professional tennis match in the 2026 Wimbledon Men Singles Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Camilo Ugo Carabelli' if Camilo Ugo Carabelli advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
