Live prediction market odds for Daniel Merida vs. Ethan Quinn. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-12
This market resolved on 2026-04-12. Ethan Quinn was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 69%.
Daniel Merida vs. Ethan Quinn — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-12. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Ethan QuinnWINNER | 99% | 39% |
Daniel Merida | 1% | 61% |
Daniel Merida vs. Ethan Quinn was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Ethan Quinn led the market at 69% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Daniel Merida at 31%.
Ethan Quinn held the lead at 69% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Ethan Quinn, Daniel Merida at 31% were the next closest contenders. The 60.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Ethan Quinn: 99¢ on Kalshi, 39¢ on Polymarket. Daniel Merida: 1¢ on Kalshi, 61¢ on Polymarket. The 60.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 69¢ meant the market estimated a 69% chance that Ethan Quinn would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 69¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 45% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Daniel Merida wins the Quinn vs Merida professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Barcelona Qualification Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Quinn vs Merida professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Barcelona Qualification Final after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Ethan Quinn and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Barcelona Open, Qualification, scheduled for April 12 at 6:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ethan Quinn' if Ethan Quinn advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Ethan Quinn. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ethan Quinn
69.0% avg
