Live prediction market odds for Daniel Merida vs. Marco Trungelliti. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-21
Daniel Merida vs. Marco Trungelliti — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-21. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Daniel Merida leads the “Daniel Merida vs. Marco Trungelliti” event at 52.5% implied probability, followed by Marco Trungelliti at 47.8%. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
Daniel Merida vs. Marco Trungelliti is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Daniel Merida leads at 53% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Marco Trungelliti at 48%.
Daniel Merida currently leads at 53% implied probability. Behind Daniel Merida, Marco Trungelliti at 48% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Daniel Merida: 53¢ on Kalshi, 52¢ on Polymarket. Marco Trungelliti: 48¢ on Kalshi, 48¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 53¢ means the market estimates a 53% probability that Daniel Merida will be the outcome. Buying one share at 53¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 89% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Daniel Merida wins the Trungelliti vs Merida professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Trungelliti vs Merida professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Final after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Madrid Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for April 21, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Daniel Merida
52.5% avg
