Live prediction market odds for Daniel Merida vs. Marco Trungelliti. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-23
Daniel Merida vs. Marco Trungelliti — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-23. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Daniel Merida leads the “Daniel Merida vs. Marco Trungelliti” event at 54.5% implied probability, followed by Marco Trungelliti at 45.0%. A 3.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Daniel Merida vs. Marco Trungelliti is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Daniel Merida leads at 55% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Marco Trungelliti at 45%.
Daniel Merida currently leads at 55% implied probability. Behind Daniel Merida, Marco Trungelliti at 45% are the next closest contenders. A 3.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Daniel Merida: 53¢ on Kalshi, 56¢ on Polymarket. Marco Trungelliti: 46¢ on Kalshi, 44¢ on Polymarket. The 3.0% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 55¢ means the market estimates a 55% probability that Daniel Merida will be the outcome. Buying one share at 55¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 82% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Marco Trungelliti wins the Trungelliti vs Merida professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Trungelliti vs Merida professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 23, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Daniel Merida
54.5% avg
