Live prediction market odds for Daniel Merida vs. Marco Trungelliti. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-23
This market resolved on 2026-04-23. Daniel Merida was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 77%.
Daniel Merida vs. Marco Trungelliti — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-23. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Daniel MeridaWINNER | 99% | 55% |
Marco Trungelliti | 1% | 45% |
Daniel Merida vs. Marco Trungelliti was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Daniel Merida led the market at 77% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Marco Trungelliti at 23%.
Daniel Merida held the lead at 77% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Daniel Merida, Marco Trungelliti at 23% were the next closest contenders. The 44.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Daniel Merida: 99¢ on Kalshi, 55¢ on Polymarket. Marco Trungelliti: 1¢ on Kalshi, 45¢ on Polymarket. The 44.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 77¢ meant the market estimated a 77% chance that Daniel Merida would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 77¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 30% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Marco Trungelliti wins the Trungelliti vs Merida professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Trungelliti vs Merida professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 23, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marco Trungelliti' if Marco Trungelliti advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Marco Trungelliti. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Daniel Merida
77.0% avg
