Live prediction market odds for Daniel Merida vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-27
This market resolved on 2026-04-27. Stefanos Tsitsipas was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Daniel Merida vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-27. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Stefanos TsitsipasWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Daniel Merida | 1% | 0% |
Daniel Merida vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Stefanos Tsitsipas led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Daniel Merida at 1%.
Stefanos Tsitsipas held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniel Merida at 1% were the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Stefanos Tsitsipas: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Daniel Merida: 1¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Stefanos Tsitsipas would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Daniel Merida wins the Tsitsipas vs Merida professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Tsitsipas vs Merida professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stefanos Tsitsipas' if Stefanos Tsitsipas advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Stefanos Tsitsipas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
99.5% avg
