Live prediction market odds for Emilio Nava vs. Arthur Fils. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-26
This market resolved on 2026-04-26. Arthur Fils was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Emilio Nava vs. Arthur Fils — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-26. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Arthur FilsWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Emilio Nava | 1% | 0% |
Emilio Nava vs. Arthur Fils was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Arthur Fils led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Emilio Nava at 1%.
Arthur Fils held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Arthur Fils, Emilio Nava at 1% were the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Arthur Fils: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Emilio Nava: 1¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Arthur Fils would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Arthur Fils wins the Fils vs Nava professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Fils vs Nava professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Fils and Emilio Nava in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 26, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Fils' if Arthur Fils advances against Emilio Nava. This market will resolve to 'Emilio Nava' if Emilio Nava advances against Arthur Fils. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Arthur Fils
99.5% avg
