Live prediction market odds for Gabriel Diallo vs. Joao Fonseca. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-06
This market resolved on 2026-04-06. Joao Fonseca was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 88%.
Gabriel Diallo vs. Joao Fonseca — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-06. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Joao FonsecaWINNER | 99% | 78% |
Gabriel Diallo | 1% | 23% |
Gabriel Diallo vs. Joao Fonseca was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Joao Fonseca led the market at 88% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Gabriel Diallo at 12%.
Joao Fonseca held the lead at 88% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Joao Fonseca, Gabriel Diallo at 12% were the next closest contenders. The 21.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Joao Fonseca: 99¢ on Kalshi, 78¢ on Polymarket. Gabriel Diallo: 1¢ on Kalshi, 23¢ on Polymarket. The 21.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 88¢ meant the market estimated a 88% chance that Joao Fonseca would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 88¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 14% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Joao Fonseca wins the Fonseca vs Diallo professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Fonseca vs Diallo professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 64 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Joao Fonseca and Gabriel Diallo in the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, scheduled for April 6 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joao Fonseca' if Joao Fonseca advances against Gabriel Diallo. This market will resolve to 'Gabriel Diallo' if Gabriel Diallo advances against Joao Fonseca. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Joao Fonseca
88.3% avg
