Live prediction market odds for Gael Monfils vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-23
Gael Monfils vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-23. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads the “Gael Monfils vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli” event at 51.3% implied probability, followed by Gael Monfils at 49.7%. A 23.4% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Gael Monfils vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads at 51% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Gael Monfils at 50%.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli currently leads at 51% implied probability. Behind Camilo Ugo Carabelli, Gael Monfils at 50% are the next closest contenders. The 23.4% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Camilo Ugo Carabelli: 63¢ on Kalshi, 40¢ on Polymarket. Gael Monfils: 39¢ on Kalshi, 60¢ on Polymarket. The 23.4% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 51¢ means the market estimates a 51% probability that Camilo Ugo Carabelli will be the outcome. Buying one share at 51¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 96% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Gael Monfils wins the Ugo Carabelli vs Monfils professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Ugo Carabelli vs Monfils professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Gael Monfils in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 22, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Carabelli" if Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins by 2 or more sets than Gael Monfils, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Monfils." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
51.3% avg
