Live prediction market odds for Gael Monfils vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-23
This market resolved on 2026-04-23. Camilo Ugo Carabelli was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Gael Monfils vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-23. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Camilo Ugo CarabelliWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Gael Monfils | 1% | 0% |
Gael Monfils vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Camilo Ugo Carabelli led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Gael Monfils at 1%.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Camilo Ugo Carabelli, Gael Monfils at 1% were the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Camilo Ugo Carabelli: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Gael Monfils: 1¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Camilo Ugo Carabelli would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Camilo Ugo Carabelli
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Gael Monfils wins the Ugo Carabelli vs Monfils professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Ugo Carabelli vs Monfils professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Gael Monfils in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 22, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Carabelli" if Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins by 2 or more sets than Gael Monfils, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Monfils." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
