Live prediction market odds for Hugo Gaston vs. Marko Topo. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-16
Hugo Gaston vs. Marko Topo — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-05-16. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Hugo Gaston leads the “Hugo Gaston vs. Marko Topo” event at 65.8% implied probability, followed by Marko Topo at 34.8%. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.5% spread.
Hugo Gaston vs. Marko Topo is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Hugo Gaston leads at 66% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Marko Topo at 35%.
Hugo Gaston currently leads at 66% implied probability. Behind Hugo Gaston, Marko Topo at 35% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.5% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Hugo Gaston: 66¢ on Kalshi, 66¢ on Polymarket. Marko Topo: 35¢ on Kalshi, 35¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 0.5% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 66¢ means the market estimates a 66% probability that Hugo Gaston will be the outcome. Buying one share at 66¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 52% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Hugo Gaston wins the ToPo vs Gaston professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Hamburg Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the ToPo vs Gaston professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Hamburg Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Marko Topo and Hugo Gaston in the Hamburg European Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marko Topo' if Marko Topo advances against Hugo Gaston. This market will resolve to 'Hugo Gaston' if Hugo Gaston advances against Marko Topo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hugo Gaston
65.8% avg
