Live prediction market odds for Jan Choinski vs. Henrique Rocha. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-20
Jan Choinski vs. Henrique Rocha — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-20. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Henrique Rocha leads the “Jan Choinski vs. Henrique Rocha” event at 52.3% implied probability, followed by Jan Choinski at 48.3%. A 23.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Jan Choinski vs. Henrique Rocha is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Henrique Rocha leads at 52% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Jan Choinski at 48%.
Henrique Rocha currently leads at 52% implied probability. Behind Henrique Rocha, Jan Choinski at 48% are the next closest contenders. The 23.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Henrique Rocha: 64¢ on Kalshi, 41¢ on Polymarket. Jan Choinski: 37¢ on Kalshi, 60¢ on Polymarket. The 23.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 52¢ means the market estimates a 52% probability that Henrique Rocha will be the outcome. Buying one share at 52¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 92% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Henrique Rocha
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Henrique Rocha wins the Rocha vs Choinski professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Rocha vs Choinski professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Henrique Rocha and Jan Choinski in the Madrid Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for April 20, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Rocha" if Henrique Rocha wins by 2 or more sets than Jan Choinski, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Choinski." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
52.3% avg
