Live prediction market odds for Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-12
This market resolved on 2026-04-12. Jannik Sinner was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 76%.
Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-12. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Jannik SinnerWINNER | 99% | 53% |
Carlos Alcaraz | 1% | 48% |
Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Jannik Sinner led the market at 76% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Carlos Alcaraz at 24%.
Jannik Sinner held the lead at 76% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz at 24% were the next closest contenders. The 46.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Jannik Sinner: 99¢ on Kalshi, 53¢ on Polymarket. Carlos Alcaraz: 1¢ on Kalshi, 48¢ on Polymarket. The 46.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 76¢ meant the market estimated a 76% chance that Jannik Sinner would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 76¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 32% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Jannik Sinner wins the Alcaraz vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Alcaraz vs Sinner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Final after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, scheduled for April 12 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Jannik Sinner. This market will resolve to 'Jannik Sinner' if Jannik Sinner advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jannik Sinner
75.8% avg
