Live prediction market odds for Jesper de Jong vs. Rafael Jodar. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-22
Jesper de Jong vs. Rafael Jodar — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-22. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Rafael Jodar leads the “Jesper de Jong vs. Rafael Jodar” event at 70.5% implied probability, followed by Jesper de Jong at 30.0%. A 21.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Jesper de Jong vs. Rafael Jodar is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Rafael Jodar leads at 71% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Jesper de Jong at 30%.
Rafael Jodar currently leads at 71% implied probability. Behind Rafael Jodar, Jesper de Jong at 30% are the next closest contenders. The 21.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Rafael Jodar: 81¢ on Kalshi, 60¢ on Polymarket. Jesper de Jong: 20¢ on Kalshi, 40¢ on Polymarket. The 21.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 71¢ means the market estimates a 71% probability that Rafael Jodar will be the outcome. Buying one share at 71¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 41% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Rafael Jodar
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Rafael Jodar wins the Jodar vs De Jong professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Jodar vs De Jong professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Jesper de Jong in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 22, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Jodar" if Rafael Jodar wins by 2 or more sets than Jesper de Jong, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Jong." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
70.5% avg
