Live prediction market odds for Joao Fonseca vs. Alejandro Tabilo. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-13
This market resolved on 2026-04-13. Joao Fonseca was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 83%.
Joao Fonseca vs. Alejandro Tabilo — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-13. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Joao FonsecaWINNER | 99% | 67% |
Alejandro Tabilo | 1% | 33% |
Joao Fonseca vs. Alejandro Tabilo was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Joao Fonseca led the market at 83% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Alejandro Tabilo at 17%.
Joao Fonseca held the lead at 83% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Joao Fonseca, Alejandro Tabilo at 17% were the next closest contenders. The 32.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Joao Fonseca: 99¢ on Kalshi, 67¢ on Polymarket. Alejandro Tabilo: 1¢ on Kalshi, 33¢ on Polymarket. The 32.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 83¢ meant the market estimated a 83% chance that Joao Fonseca would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 83¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 20% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Alejandro Tabilo wins the Tabilo vs Fonseca professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Munich Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Tabilo vs Fonseca professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Munich Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Alejandro Tabilo and Joao Fonseca in the BMW Open, scheduled for April 13 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Tabilo' if Alejandro Tabilo advances against Joao Fonseca. This market will resolve to 'Joao Fonseca' if Joao Fonseca advances against Alejandro Tabilo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Joao Fonseca
83.0% avg
