Live prediction market odds for Luciano Darderi vs. Francisco Cerundolo. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-27
This market resolved on 2026-04-27. Francisco Cerundolo was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 83%.
Luciano Darderi vs. Francisco Cerundolo — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-27. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Francisco CerundoloWINNER | 99% | 66% |
Luciano Darderi | 1% | 34% |
Luciano Darderi vs. Francisco Cerundolo was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Francisco Cerundolo led the market at 83% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Luciano Darderi at 18%.
Francisco Cerundolo held the lead at 83% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Francisco Cerundolo, Luciano Darderi at 18% were the next closest contenders. The 33.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Francisco Cerundolo: 99¢ on Kalshi, 66¢ on Polymarket. Luciano Darderi: 1¢ on Kalshi, 34¢ on Polymarket. The 33.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 83¢ meant the market estimated a 83% chance that Francisco Cerundolo would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 83¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 20% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Francisco Cerundolo wins the Cerundolo vs Darderi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Cerundolo vs Darderi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Francisco Cerundolo and Luciano Darderi in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Francisco Cerundolo' if Francisco Cerundolo advances against Luciano Darderi. This market will resolve to 'Luciano Darderi' if Luciano Darderi advances against Francisco Cerundolo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Francisco Cerundolo
82.5% avg
