Live prediction market odds for Marcos Giron vs. Yannick Hanfmann. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-22
Marcos Giron vs. Yannick Hanfmann — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-22. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Yannick Hanfmann leads the “Marcos Giron vs. Yannick Hanfmann” event at 66.5% implied probability, followed by Marcos Giron at 33.5%. A 5.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Marcos Giron vs. Yannick Hanfmann is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Yannick Hanfmann leads at 67% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Marcos Giron at 34%.
Yannick Hanfmann currently leads at 67% implied probability. Behind Yannick Hanfmann, Marcos Giron at 34% are the next closest contenders. The 5.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Yannick Hanfmann: 69¢ on Kalshi, 64¢ on Polymarket. Marcos Giron: 31¢ on Kalshi, 36¢ on Polymarket. The 5.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 67¢ means the market estimates a 67% probability that Yannick Hanfmann will be the outcome. Buying one share at 67¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 49% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Yannick Hanfmann
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Yannick Hanfmann wins the Hanfmann vs Giron professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Hanfmann vs Giron professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Yannick Hanfmann and Marcos Giron in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 22, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Hanfmann” if Yannick Hanfmann wins the first set. It will resolve to “Giron” if Marcos Giron wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.
66.5% avg
