Live prediction market odds for Mariano Navone vs. Casper Ruud. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-05-22
Mariano Navone vs. Casper Ruud — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-05-22. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Casper Ruud leads the “Mariano Navone vs. Casper Ruud” event at 73.0% implied probability, followed by Mariano Navone at 27.0%. A 2.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Mariano Navone vs. Casper Ruud is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Casper Ruud leads at 73% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Mariano Navone at 27%.
Casper Ruud currently leads at 73% implied probability. Behind Casper Ruud, Mariano Navone at 27% are the next closest contenders. A 2.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Casper Ruud: 74¢ on Kalshi, 72¢ on Polymarket. Mariano Navone: 26¢ on Kalshi, 28¢ on Polymarket. The 2.0% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 73¢ means the market estimates a 73% probability that Casper Ruud will be the outcome. Buying one share at 73¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 37% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Casper Ruud wins the Ruud vs Navone professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Geneva Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Ruud vs Navone professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Geneva Semifinal after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Mariano Navone in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 22, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Mariano Navone. This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Casper Ruud. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Casper Ruud
73.0% avg
