Live prediction market odds for Mariano Navone vs. Casper Ruud. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-22
This market resolved on 2026-05-22. Mariano Navone was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.
Mariano Navone vs. Casper Ruud — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-05-22. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Mariano NavoneWINNER | 99% | 96% |
Casper Ruud | 1% | 4% |
Mariano Navone vs. Casper Ruud was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Mariano Navone led the market at 98% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Casper Ruud at 3%.
Mariano Navone held the lead at 98% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Mariano Navone, Casper Ruud at 3% were the next closest contenders. A 3.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Mariano Navone: 99¢ on Kalshi, 96¢ on Polymarket. Casper Ruud: 1¢ on Kalshi, 4¢ on Polymarket. The 3.0% spread showed moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 98¢ meant the market estimated a 98% chance that Mariano Navone would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 98¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 2% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Casper Ruud wins the Ruud vs Navone professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Geneva Semifinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Ruud vs Navone professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Geneva Semifinal after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Casper Ruud and Mariano Navone in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 22, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Mariano Navone. This market will resolve to 'Mariano Navone' if Mariano Navone advances against Casper Ruud. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mariano Navone
97.5% avg
