Live prediction market odds for Mariano Navone vs. Nuno Borges. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-23
Mariano Navone vs. Nuno Borges — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-23. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Mariano Navone leads the “Mariano Navone vs. Nuno Borges” event at 50.3% implied probability, followed by Nuno Borges at 49.3%. A 23.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Mariano Navone vs. Nuno Borges is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Mariano Navone leads at 50% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Nuno Borges at 49%.
Mariano Navone currently leads at 50% implied probability. Behind Mariano Navone, Nuno Borges at 49% are the next closest contenders. The 23.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Mariano Navone: 62¢ on Kalshi, 39¢ on Polymarket. Nuno Borges: 38¢ on Kalshi, 61¢ on Polymarket. The 23.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 50¢ means the market estimates a 50% probability that Mariano Navone will be the outcome. Buying one share at 50¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 100% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Mariano Navone
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Nuno Borges wins the Borges vs Navone professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Borges vs Navone professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Mariano Navone and Nuno Borges in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 22, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Navone" if Mariano Navone wins by 2 or more sets than Nuno Borges, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Borges." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
50.3% avg
