Live prediction market odds for Marin Cilic vs. Joao Fonseca. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-24
Marin Cilic vs. Joao Fonseca — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-24. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Joao Fonseca leads the “Marin Cilic vs. Joao Fonseca” event at 65.0% implied probability, followed by Marin Cilic at 35.5%. A 28.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Marin Cilic vs. Joao Fonseca is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Joao Fonseca leads at 65% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Marin Cilic at 36%.
Joao Fonseca currently leads at 65% implied probability. Behind Joao Fonseca, Marin Cilic at 36% are the next closest contenders. The 28.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Joao Fonseca: 79¢ on Kalshi, 51¢ on Polymarket. Marin Cilic: 22¢ on Kalshi, 49¢ on Polymarket. The 28.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 65¢ means the market estimates a 65% probability that Joao Fonseca will be the outcome. Buying one share at 65¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 54% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Joao Fonseca wins the Fonseca vs Cilic professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Fonseca vs Cilic professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 64 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Joao Fonseca and Marin Cilic in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Joao Fonseca' if Joao Fonseca advances against Marin Cilic. This market will resolve to 'Marin Cilic' if Marin Cilic advances against Joao Fonseca. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Joao Fonseca
65.0% avg
