Live prediction market odds for Marin Cilic vs. Marcos Giron. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-06
This market resolved on 2026-05-06. Marin Cilic was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 79%.
Marin Cilic vs. Marcos Giron — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-05-06. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Marin CilicWINNER | 99% | 59% |
Marcos Giron | 1% | 41% |
Marin Cilic vs. Marcos Giron was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Marin Cilic led the market at 79% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Marcos Giron at 21%.
Marin Cilic held the lead at 79% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Marin Cilic, Marcos Giron at 21% were the next closest contenders. The 40.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Marin Cilic: 99¢ on Kalshi, 59¢ on Polymarket. Marcos Giron: 1¢ on Kalshi, 41¢ on Polymarket. The 40.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 79¢ meant the market estimated a 79% chance that Marin Cilic would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 79¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 27% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Marcos Giron wins the Giron vs Cilic professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Rome Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Giron vs Cilic professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Rome Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Marcos Giron and Marin Cilic in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 6, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marcos Giron' if Marcos Giron advances against Marin Cilic. This market will resolve to 'Marin Cilic' if Marin Cilic advances against Marcos Giron. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marin Cilic
79.0% avg
