Live prediction market odds for Martin Damm vs. Pablo Carreno Busta. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Join our Discord for breaking news alerts, driven by real-time movements in prediction markets.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-05-04
This market resolved on 2026-05-04. Pablo Carreno Busta was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Martin Damm vs. Pablo Carreno Busta — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-05-04. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Pablo Carreno BustaWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Martin Damm vs. Pablo Carreno Busta was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Pablo Carreno Busta led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution.
Pablo Carreno Busta held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Pablo Carreno Busta: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Pablo Carreno Busta would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Build a custom bot or arb alert system for the “Martin Damm vs. Pablo Carreno Busta” event. All for free.
As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
Used by builders and traders in our 2.5K+ Discord community
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Pablo Carreno Busta wins the Carreno Busta vs Damm Jr professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Rome Qualification after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Carreno Busta vs Damm Jr professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Rome Qualification after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Carreno Busta and Martin Damm in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Martin Damm. This market will resolve to 'Martin Damm' if Martin Damm advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pablo Carreno Busta
99.5% avg
