Live prediction market odds for Matteo Arnaldi vs. Dusan Lajovic. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-20
This market resolved on 2026-04-20. Dusan Lajovic was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Dusan Lajovic — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-20. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Dusan LajovicWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Matteo Arnaldi | 1% | 0% |
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Dusan Lajovic was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Dusan Lajovic led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Matteo Arnaldi at 1%.
Dusan Lajovic held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Dusan Lajovic, Matteo Arnaldi at 1% were the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Dusan Lajovic: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Matteo Arnaldi: 1¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Dusan Lajovic would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Matteo Arnaldi wins the Lajovic vs Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Lajovic vs Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Dusan Lajovic and Matteo Arnaldi in the Madrid Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for April 20, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dusan Lajovic' if Dusan Lajovic advances against Matteo Arnaldi. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Dusan Lajovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Dusan Lajovic
99.5% avg
