Live prediction market odds for Matteo Arnaldi vs. Dusan Lajovic. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-20
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Dusan Lajovic — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-20. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Matteo Arnaldi leads the “Matteo Arnaldi vs. Dusan Lajovic” event at 55.3% implied probability, followed by Dusan Lajovic at 45.3%. A 2.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Dusan Lajovic is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Matteo Arnaldi leads at 55% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Dusan Lajovic at 45%.
Matteo Arnaldi currently leads at 55% implied probability. Behind Matteo Arnaldi, Dusan Lajovic at 45% are the next closest contenders. A 2.5% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Matteo Arnaldi: 57¢ on Kalshi, 54¢ on Polymarket. Dusan Lajovic: 45¢ on Kalshi, 46¢ on Polymarket. The 2.5% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 55¢ means the market estimates a 55% probability that Matteo Arnaldi will be the outcome. Buying one share at 55¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 82% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Matteo Arnaldi wins the Lajovic vs Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Lajovic vs Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Dusan Lajovic and Matteo Arnaldi in the Madrid Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for April 20, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Dusan Lajovic' if Dusan Lajovic advances against Matteo Arnaldi. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Dusan Lajovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Matteo Arnaldi
55.3% avg
