Live prediction market odds for Matteo Arnaldi vs. Frances Tiafoe. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-01
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Frances Tiafoe — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-06-01. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Frances Tiafoe leads the “Matteo Arnaldi vs. Frances Tiafoe” event at 55.0% implied probability, followed by Matteo Arnaldi at 44.5%. A 2.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Frances Tiafoe is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Frances Tiafoe leads at 55% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Matteo Arnaldi at 45%.
Frances Tiafoe currently leads at 55% implied probability. Behind Frances Tiafoe, Matteo Arnaldi at 45% are the next closest contenders. A 2.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Frances Tiafoe: 54¢ on Kalshi, 56¢ on Polymarket. Matteo Arnaldi: 45¢ on Kalshi, 44¢ on Polymarket. The 2.0% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 55¢ means the market estimates a 55% probability that Frances Tiafoe will be the outcome. Buying one share at 55¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 82% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Frances Tiafoe wins the Tiafoe vs Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 French Open Men Singles Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Tiafoe vs Arnaldi professional tennis match in the 2026 French Open Men Singles Round Of 16 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Frances Tiafoe and Matteo Arnaldi in the Roland Garros ATP, originally scheduled for June 1, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Matteo Arnaldi. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Frances Tiafoe. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frances Tiafoe
55.0% avg
