Live prediction market odds for Nicolas Jarry vs. Cristian Garin. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-20
Nicolas Jarry vs. Cristian Garin — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-20. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Cristian Garin leads the “Nicolas Jarry vs. Cristian Garin” event at 69.5% implied probability, followed by Nicolas Jarry at 31.3%. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
Nicolas Jarry vs. Cristian Garin is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Cristian Garin leads at 70% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Nicolas Jarry at 31%.
Cristian Garin currently leads at 70% implied probability. Behind Cristian Garin, Nicolas Jarry at 31% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Cristian Garin: 70¢ on Kalshi, 69¢ on Polymarket. Nicolas Jarry: 32¢ on Kalshi, 31¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 70¢ means the market estimates a 70% probability that Cristian Garin will be the outcome. Buying one share at 70¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 43% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Nicolas Jarry wins the Garin vs Jarry professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Garin vs Jarry professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Cristian Garin and Nicolas Jarry in the Madrid Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for April 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Cristian Garin' if Cristian Garin advances against Nicolas Jarry. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Jarry' if Nicolas Jarry advances against Cristian Garin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Cristian Garin
69.5% avg
