Live prediction market odds for Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Stefano Travaglia. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-20
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Stefano Travaglia — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-20. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Nikoloz Basilashvili leads the “Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Stefano Travaglia” event at 52.3% implied probability, followed by Stefano Travaglia at 47.5%. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
Nikoloz Basilashvili vs. Stefano Travaglia is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Nikoloz Basilashvili leads at 52% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Stefano Travaglia at 48%.
Nikoloz Basilashvili currently leads at 52% implied probability. Behind Nikoloz Basilashvili, Stefano Travaglia at 48% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Nikoloz Basilashvili: 53¢ on Kalshi, 52¢ on Polymarket. Stefano Travaglia: 47¢ on Kalshi, 48¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 52¢ means the market estimates a 52% probability that Nikoloz Basilashvili will be the outcome. Buying one share at 52¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 92% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Stefano Travaglia wins the Travaglia vs Basilashvili professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Travaglia vs Basilashvili professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Stefano Travaglia and Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Madrid Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for April 20, 2026 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Stefano Travaglia' if Stefano Travaglia advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Stefano Travaglia. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Nikoloz Basilashvili
52.3% avg
