Live prediction market odds for Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-25
This market resolved on 2026-04-25. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-25. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Alejandro Davidovich FokinaWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Pablo Carreno Busta | 1% | 0% |
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Alejandro Davidovich Fokina led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Pablo Carreno Busta at 1%.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Pablo Carreno Busta at 1% were the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Pablo Carreno Busta: 1¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Alejandro Davidovich Fokina would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Alejandro Davidovich Fokina wins the Davidovich Fokina vs Carreno Busta professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Davidovich Fokina vs Carreno Busta professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 64 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Pablo Carreno Busta in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Davidovich Fokina' if Alejandro Davidovich Fokina advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
99.5% avg
