Live prediction market odds for Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Pedro Martinez. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-11
This market resolved on 2026-04-11. Pedro Martinez was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 68%.
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Pedro Martinez — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-11. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Pedro MartinezWINNER | 99% | 37% |
Pablo Carreno Busta | 1% | 64% |
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Pedro Martinez was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Pedro Martinez led the market at 68% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Pablo Carreno Busta at 32%.
Pedro Martinez held the lead at 68% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Pedro Martinez, Pablo Carreno Busta at 32% were the next closest contenders. The 62.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Pedro Martinez: 99¢ on Kalshi, 37¢ on Polymarket. Pablo Carreno Busta: 1¢ on Kalshi, 64¢ on Polymarket. The 62.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 68¢ meant the market estimated a 68% chance that Pedro Martinez would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 68¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 47% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Pablo Carreno Busta wins the Martinez vs Carreno Busta professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Barcelona Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Martinez vs Carreno Busta professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Barcelona Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Pedro Martinez and Pablo Carreno Busta in the Barcelona Open, Qualification, scheduled for April 11 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pedro Martinez' if Pedro Martinez advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Pedro Martinez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pedro Martinez
67.8% avg
