Live prediction market odds for Quentin Halys vs. Matteo Arnaldi. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-11
This market resolved on 2026-04-11. Quentin Halys was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 72%.
Quentin Halys vs. Matteo Arnaldi — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-11. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Quentin HalysWINNER | 99% | 46% |
Matteo Arnaldi | 1% | 55% |
Quentin Halys vs. Matteo Arnaldi was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Quentin Halys led the market at 72% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Matteo Arnaldi at 28%.
Quentin Halys held the lead at 72% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Quentin Halys, Matteo Arnaldi at 28% were the next closest contenders. The 53.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Quentin Halys: 99¢ on Kalshi, 46¢ on Polymarket. Matteo Arnaldi: 1¢ on Kalshi, 55¢ on Polymarket. The 53.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 72¢ meant the market estimated a 72% chance that Quentin Halys would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 72¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 39% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Quentin Halys wins the Arnaldi vs Halys professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Barcelona Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Arnaldi vs Halys professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Barcelona Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and Quentin Halys in the Barcelona Open, Qualification, scheduled for April 11 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Quentin Halys. This market will resolve to 'Quentin Halys' if Quentin Halys advances against Matteo Arnaldi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Quentin Halys
72.3% avg
