Live prediction market odds for Rafael Jodar vs. Marco Trungelliti. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-05
This market resolved on 2026-04-05. Rafael Jodar was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 83%.
Rafael Jodar vs. Marco Trungelliti — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-05. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Rafael JodarWINNER | 99% | 67% |
Marco Trungelliti | 1% | 33% |
Rafael Jodar vs. Marco Trungelliti was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Rafael Jodar led the market at 83% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Marco Trungelliti at 17%.
Rafael Jodar held the lead at 83% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Rafael Jodar, Marco Trungelliti at 17% were the next closest contenders. The 32.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Rafael Jodar: 99¢ on Kalshi, 67¢ on Polymarket. Marco Trungelliti: 1¢ on Kalshi, 33¢ on Polymarket. The 32.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 83¢ meant the market estimated a 83% chance that Rafael Jodar would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 83¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 20% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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As seen on Financial Times, Guardian and Polymark.et
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Rafael Jodar
83.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Marco Trungelliti wins the Trungelliti vs Jodar professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Trungelliti vs Jodar professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Marrakech Final after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Marco Trungelliti and Rafael Jodar in the Grand Prix Hassan II, scheduled for April 5 2026. This market will resolve to “Trungelliti” if Marco Trungelliti wins the first set. It will resolve to “Jodar” if Rafael Jodar wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP match statistics.
