Live prediction market odds for Saba Purtseladze vs. Daniel Merida. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-03-29
Saba Purtseladze vs. Daniel Merida — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-03-29. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Daniel Merida leads the “Saba Purtseladze vs. Daniel Merida” event at 88.3% implied probability, followed by Saba Purtseladze at 12.3%. A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Saba Purtseladze vs. Daniel Merida is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Daniel Merida leads at 88% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Saba Purtseladze at 12%.
Daniel Merida currently leads at 88% implied probability. Behind Daniel Merida, Saba Purtseladze at 12% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Daniel Merida: 90¢ on Kalshi, 87¢ on Polymarket. Saba Purtseladze: 11¢ on Kalshi, 14¢ on Polymarket. The 3.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 88¢ means the market estimates a 88% probability that Daniel Merida will be the outcome. Buying one share at 88¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 14% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
Daniel Merida
88.3% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Saba Purtseladze wins the Merida vs Purtseladze professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Merida vs Purtseladze professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Saba Purtseladze in the Bucharest Open, Qualification, scheduled for March 29 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Saba Purtseladze. This market will resolve to 'Saba Purtseladze' if Saba Purtseladze advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
