Live prediction market odds for Sebastian Baez vs. Carlos Alcaraz. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-07
This market resolved on 2026-04-07. Carlos Alcaraz was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 98%.
Sebastian Baez vs. Carlos Alcaraz — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-07. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Carlos AlcarazWINNER | 99% | 96% |
Sebastian Baez | 1% | 4% |
Sebastian Baez vs. Carlos Alcaraz was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Carlos Alcaraz led the market at 98% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Sebastian Baez at 2%.
Carlos Alcaraz held the lead at 98% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Carlos Alcaraz, Sebastian Baez at 2% were the next closest contenders. A 2.7% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Carlos Alcaraz: 99¢ on Kalshi, 96¢ on Polymarket. Sebastian Baez: 1¢ on Kalshi, 4¢ on Polymarket. The 2.7% spread showed moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 98¢ meant the market estimated a 98% chance that Carlos Alcaraz would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 98¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 2% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Sebastian Baez wins the Alcaraz vs Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Alcaraz vs Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Monte Carlo Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers on the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Sebastian Baez in the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, scheduled for April 8 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Sebastian Baez. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Carlos Alcaraz
97.7% avg
