Live prediction market odds for Sebastian Baez vs. Carlos Alcaraz. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-07
Sebastian Baez vs. Carlos Alcaraz — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-07. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Carlos Alcaraz leads the “Sebastian Baez vs. Carlos Alcaraz” event at 95.8% implied probability, followed by Sebastian Baez at 5.3%. A 1.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Sebastian Baez vs. Carlos Alcaraz is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Carlos Alcaraz leads at 96% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Sebastian Baez at 5%.
Carlos Alcaraz currently leads at 96% implied probability. Behind Carlos Alcaraz, Sebastian Baez at 5% are the next closest contenders. A 1.5% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Carlos Alcaraz: 96¢ on Kalshi, 96¢ on Polymarket. Sebastian Baez: 6¢ on Kalshi, 5¢ on Polymarket. The 1.5% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 96¢ means the market estimates a 96% probability that Carlos Alcaraz will be the outcome. Buying one share at 96¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 4% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Carlos Alcaraz
95.8% avg
