Live prediction market odds for Sebastian Baez vs. Vilius Gaubas. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-23
Sebastian Baez vs. Vilius Gaubas — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-23. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Sebastian Baez leads the “Sebastian Baez vs. Vilius Gaubas” event at 69.8% implied probability, followed by Vilius Gaubas at 31.3%. A 2.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Sebastian Baez vs. Vilius Gaubas is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Sebastian Baez leads at 70% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Vilius Gaubas at 31%.
Sebastian Baez currently leads at 70% implied probability. Behind Sebastian Baez, Vilius Gaubas at 31% are the next closest contenders. A 2.5% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Sebastian Baez: 71¢ on Kalshi, 69¢ on Polymarket. Vilius Gaubas: 31¢ on Kalshi, 32¢ on Polymarket. The 2.5% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 70¢ means the market estimates a 70% probability that Sebastian Baez will be the outcome. Buying one share at 70¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 43% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Sebastian Baez wins the Gaubas vs Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Gaubas vs Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Vilius Gaubas and Sebastian Baez in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 23, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Vilius Gaubas' if Vilius Gaubas advances against Sebastian Baez. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Vilius Gaubas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sebastian Baez
69.8% avg
