Live prediction market odds for Sebastian Baez vs. Vilius Gaubas. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-23
This market resolved on 2026-04-23. Vilius Gaubas was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Sebastian Baez vs. Vilius Gaubas — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-23. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Vilius GaubasWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Sebastian Baez | 1% | 0% |
Sebastian Baez vs. Vilius Gaubas was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Vilius Gaubas led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Sebastian Baez at 1%.
Vilius Gaubas held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Vilius Gaubas, Sebastian Baez at 1% were the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Vilius Gaubas: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Sebastian Baez: 1¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Vilius Gaubas would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Sebastian Baez wins the Gaubas vs Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Gaubas vs Baez professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Vilius Gaubas and Sebastian Baez in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 23, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Vilius Gaubas' if Vilius Gaubas advances against Sebastian Baez. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Vilius Gaubas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vilius Gaubas
99.5% avg
