Live prediction market odds for Sebastian Ofner vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-22
Sebastian Ofner vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-22. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Sebastian Ofner leads the “Sebastian Ofner vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili” event at 58.5% implied probability, followed by Nikoloz Basilashvili at 43.5%. A 3.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Sebastian Ofner vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Sebastian Ofner leads at 59% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Nikoloz Basilashvili at 44%.
Sebastian Ofner currently leads at 59% implied probability. Behind Sebastian Ofner, Nikoloz Basilashvili at 44% are the next closest contenders. A 3.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Sebastian Ofner: 59¢ on Kalshi, 58¢ on Polymarket. Nikoloz Basilashvili: 45¢ on Kalshi, 42¢ on Polymarket. The 3.0% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 59¢ means the market estimates a 59% probability that Sebastian Ofner will be the outcome. Buying one share at 59¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 69% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Sebastian Ofner wins the Basilashvili vs Ofner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Basilashvili vs Ofner professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 128 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Nikoloz Basilashvili and Sebastian Ofner in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 22, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nikoloz Basilashvili' if Nikoloz Basilashvili advances against Sebastian Ofner. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Ofner' if Sebastian Ofner advances against Nikoloz Basilashvili. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sebastian Ofner
58.5% avg
