Live prediction market odds for Toby Samuel vs. Matteo Arnaldi. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-06-21
Toby Samuel vs. Matteo Arnaldi — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-06-21. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Toby Samuel leads the “Toby Samuel vs. Matteo Arnaldi” event at 50.5% implied probability, followed by Matteo Arnaldi at 49.5%. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread.
Toby Samuel vs. Matteo Arnaldi is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Toby Samuel leads at 51% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Matteo Arnaldi at 50%.
Toby Samuel currently leads at 51% implied probability. Behind Toby Samuel, Matteo Arnaldi at 50% are the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Toby Samuel: 51¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Matteo Arnaldi: 49¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Platforms are tightly aligned at a 1.0% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 51¢ means the market estimates a 51% probability that Toby Samuel will be the outcome. Buying one share at 51¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 96% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Matteo Arnaldi wins the Arnaldi vs Samuel professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Eastbourne Qualification Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Arnaldi vs Samuel professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Eastbourne Qualification Final after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Arnaldi and Toby Samuel in the Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for June 21, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Arnaldi' if Matteo Arnaldi advances against Toby Samuel. This market will resolve to 'Toby Samuel' if Toby Samuel advances against Matteo Arnaldi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Toby Samuel
50.5% avg
