Live prediction market odds for Tomas Machac vs. Carlos Alcaraz. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-16
Tomas Machac vs. Carlos Alcaraz — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-16. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Carlos Alcaraz leads the “Tomas Machac vs. Carlos Alcaraz” event at 89.8% implied probability, followed by Tomas Machac at 11.3%. A 3.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Tomas Machac vs. Carlos Alcaraz is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Carlos Alcaraz leads at 90% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Tomas Machac at 11%.
Carlos Alcaraz currently leads at 90% implied probability. Behind Carlos Alcaraz, Tomas Machac at 11% are the next closest contenders. The 3.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Carlos Alcaraz: 92¢ on Kalshi, 88¢ on Polymarket. Tomas Machac: 11¢ on Kalshi, 12¢ on Polymarket. The 3.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 90¢ means the market estimates a 90% probability that Carlos Alcaraz will be the outcome. Buying one share at 90¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 11% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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This market resolves based on official announcements from authoritative sources. Prediction Hunt aggregates odds across platforms but does not determine outcomes. Each platform maintains its own resolution criteria — check each platform's rules before trading.
Carlos Alcaraz
89.8% avg
