Live prediction market odds for Tomas Machac vs. Carlos Alcaraz. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-16
Tomas Machac vs. Carlos Alcaraz — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-16. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Carlos Alcaraz leads the “Tomas Machac vs. Carlos Alcaraz” event at 65.0% implied probability, followed by Tomas Machac at 35.0%. A 28.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Tomas Machac vs. Carlos Alcaraz is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Carlos Alcaraz leads at 65% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Tomas Machac at 35%.
Carlos Alcaraz currently leads at 65% implied probability. Behind Carlos Alcaraz, Tomas Machac at 35% are the next closest contenders. The 28.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Carlos Alcaraz: 79¢ on Kalshi, 51¢ on Polymarket. Tomas Machac: 21¢ on Kalshi, 49¢ on Polymarket. The 28.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 65¢ means the market estimates a 65% probability that Carlos Alcaraz will be the outcome. Buying one share at 65¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 54% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Tomas Machac wins the Alcaraz vs Machac professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Barcelona Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Alcaraz vs Machac professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Barcelona Round Of 16 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Tomas Machac in the Barcelona Open, originally scheduled for April 16, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Tomas Machac. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Machac' if Tomas Machac advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Carlos Alcaraz
65.0% avg
