Live prediction market odds for Tommy Paul vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-04-24
This market resolved on 2026-04-24. Thiago Agustin Tirante was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 99%.
Tommy Paul vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante — ATP Tennis match held on 2026-04-24. Review the historical prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Thiago Agustin TiranteWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Tommy Paul | 1% | 0% |
Tommy Paul vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Thiago Agustin Tirante led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Tommy Paul at 1%.
Thiago Agustin Tirante held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Thiago Agustin Tirante, Tommy Paul at 1% were the next closest contenders. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, suggesting broad consensus on the odds.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Thiago Agustin Tirante: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Tommy Paul: 1¢ on Kalshi, 0¢ on Polymarket. Platforms were tightly aligned at a 0.9% spread, leaving little room for cross-platform arbitrage.
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Thiago Agustin Tirante would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Tommy Paul wins the Tirante vs Paul professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 64 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Tirante vs Paul professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Round Of 64 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Agustin Tirante and Tommy Paul in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 24, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Tommy Paul. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thiago Agustin Tirante
99.5% avg
