Live prediction market odds for Vilius Gaubas vs. Arthur Gea. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-20
Vilius Gaubas vs. Arthur Gea — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-20. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Vilius Gaubas leads the “Vilius Gaubas vs. Arthur Gea” event at 56.0% implied probability, followed by Arthur Gea at 45.0%. A 2.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Vilius Gaubas vs. Arthur Gea is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Vilius Gaubas leads at 56% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Arthur Gea at 45%.
Vilius Gaubas currently leads at 56% implied probability. Behind Vilius Gaubas, Arthur Gea at 45% are the next closest contenders. A 2.0% spread across platforms indicated moderate disagreement on the latest developments.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Vilius Gaubas: 57¢ on Kalshi, 55¢ on Polymarket. Arthur Gea: 45¢ on Kalshi, 45¢ on Polymarket. The 2.0% spread shows moderate platform divergence worth monitoring for potential opportunities.
A price of 56¢ means the market estimates a 56% probability that Vilius Gaubas will be the outcome. Buying one share at 56¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 79% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Vilius Gaubas wins the Gea vs Gaubas professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Gea vs Gaubas professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Gea and Vilius Gaubas in the Madrid Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for April 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Vilius Gaubas. This market will resolve to 'Vilius Gaubas' if Vilius Gaubas advances against Arthur Gea. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Vilius Gaubas
56.0% avg
