Live prediction market odds for Vilius Gaubas vs. Rei Sakamoto. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-04-21
Vilius Gaubas vs. Rei Sakamoto — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-04-21. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Rei Sakamoto leads the “Vilius Gaubas vs. Rei Sakamoto” event at 49.3% implied probability, followed by Vilius Gaubas at 48.5%. A 5.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Vilius Gaubas vs. Rei Sakamoto is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Rei Sakamoto leads at 49% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Vilius Gaubas at 49%.
Rei Sakamoto currently leads at 49% implied probability. Behind Rei Sakamoto, Vilius Gaubas at 49% are the next closest contenders. The 5.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Rei Sakamoto: 50¢ on Kalshi, 49¢ on Polymarket. Vilius Gaubas: 46¢ on Kalshi, 51¢ on Polymarket. The 5.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 49¢ means the market estimates a 49% probability that Rei Sakamoto will be the outcome. Buying one share at 49¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 104% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
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Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Vilius Gaubas wins the Sakamoto vs Gaubas professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Final after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Sakamoto vs Gaubas professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Madrid Qualification Final after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Rei Sakamoto and Vilius Gaubas in the Madrid Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for April 21, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Rei Sakamoto' if Rei Sakamoto advances against Vilius Gaubas. This market will resolve to 'Vilius Gaubas' if Vilius Gaubas advances against Rei Sakamoto. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rei Sakamoto
49.3% avg
