Live prediction market odds for Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-03-29
Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez — ATP Tennis match scheduled for 2026-03-29. Compare live prediction market odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, and more on Prediction Hunt.
Vilius Gaubas leads the “Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez” event at 40.5% implied probability, followed by Sebastian Baez at 60.3%. A 21.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Vilius Gaubas vs. Sebastian Baez is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Vilius Gaubas leads at 41% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Sebastian Baez at 60%.
Vilius Gaubas currently leads at 41% implied probability. Behind Vilius Gaubas, Sebastian Baez at 60% are the next closest contenders. The 21.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here are the latest odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Vilius Gaubas: 31¢ on Kalshi, 51¢ on Polymarket. Sebastian Baez: 71¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 21.5% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagree — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 41¢ means the market estimates a 41% probability that Vilius Gaubas will be the outcome. Buying one share at 41¢ pays out $1.00 if correct — a 144% return — or $0 if wrong. This is the core mechanic of prediction markets: the price directly reflects the crowd's probability estimate.
Vilius Gaubas
40.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi and Polymarket.
KalshiIf Sebastian Baez wins the Baez vs Gaubas professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 32 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
The following market refers to the Baez vs Gaubas professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 32 after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur (signaled by a ball being played) due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation (all before the match starts), the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished (within two weeks).
PolymarketThis market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Vilius Gaubas in the Bucharest Open, scheduled for March 30 2026. This market will resolve to "Baez" if Sebastian Baez wins by 2 or more sets than Vilius Gaubas, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Gaubas." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official ATP results.
