Live prediction market odds for AZ-01 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
2026-11-04
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the winner of the AZ-01 House race. This election outcome will influence party control in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the region.
Democratic Party leads the “AZ-01 House winner” event at 72.0% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 31.3%. A 19.0% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and historical voting trends also play a crucial role.
The outcome could shift the balance of power in Congress, affecting legislative priorities and party dynamics. A win for one party may signal broader trends in voter behavior.
The election is set for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election cycle, which typically sees high voter turnout.
AZ-01 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Democratic Party leads at 72% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 31%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 72% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 31% are the next closest contenders. The 19.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democratic Party
72.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AZ-1 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
