Live prediction market odds for AZ-03 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
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Kalshi / Polymarket
2026-11-03
Polymarket and Kalshi are tracking the winner of the AZ-03 House race scheduled for November 3, 2026. This election is crucial as it could influence the balance of power in Congress and reflect voter sentiment on key issues in the state.
Democratic Party leads the “AZ-03 House winner” event at 95.1% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 4.3%. A 5.2% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Factors include candidate popularity, campaign funding, and local issues that resonate with voters. Polling data and endorsements can also significantly sway market predictions.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell shares based on their expectations of election outcomes. Prices reflect the collective wisdom and sentiment of traders regarding the likelihood of various candidates winning.
The AZ-03 House race is pivotal as it may determine which party gains or maintains control in the House of Representatives. Additionally, it serves as a barometer for broader political trends leading into the 2026 elections.
AZ-03 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Democratic Party leads at 95% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 4%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 95% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 4% are the next closest contenders. The 5.2% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democratic Party
95.1% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AZ-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
