Live prediction market odds for AZ-06 House winner?. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket and PredictIt.
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Kalshi / Polymarket / PredictIt
2026-11-04
Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt are tracking the AZ-06 House winner for the upcoming 2026 elections. This race is pivotal as it could influence the balance of power in Congress, with implications for key policy decisions and party strategies.
Democratic Party leads the “AZ-06 House winner” event at 83.0% implied probability, followed by Republican Party at 17.8%. A 20.5% cross-platform spread signals an active arbitrage window.
Polling data, candidate fundraising, and local issues significantly impact the odds. Additionally, national political trends and party support can sway voter sentiment.
The AZ-06 House election is scheduled for November 4, 2026. This timing aligns with the general election date for federal offices.
Prediction markets aggregate the opinions of participants who buy and sell shares based on their expectations of future events. Prices reflect the collective sentiment and can change rapidly with new information.
AZ-06 House winner is a prediction market event currently tracked across 3 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt). Democratic Party leads at 83% implied probability, making it the market favorite. Other contenders include Republican Party at 18%.
Democratic Party currently leads at 83% implied probability. Behind Democratic Party, Republican Party at 18% are the next closest contenders. The 20.5% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
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Democratic Party
83.0% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf the House member sworn in for AZ-6 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
