Live prediction market odds for BAFTA Film Awards: Best Leading Actor Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-22
This market resolved on 2026-02-22. Robert Aramayo was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
Robert AramayoWINNER | 99% | 100% |
Cillian Murphy | 1% | 50% |
Ethan Hawke | 1% | 50% |
Harry Melling | 1% | 50% |
Jesse Plemons | 1% | 50% |
Joel Edgerton | 1% | 50% |
Leonardo DiCaprio | 1% | 50% |
Michael B. Jordan | 1% | 50% |
Russell Crowe | 1% | 50% |
Timothée Chalamet | 1% | 50% |
BAFTA Film Awards: Best Leading Actor Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Robert Aramayo led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Cillian Murphy at 26%, Ethan Hawke at 26%, Harry Melling at 26%.
Robert Aramayo held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Robert Aramayo, Cillian Murphy at 26% and Ethan Hawke at 26% and Harry Melling at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Robert Aramayo: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Cillian Murphy: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Ethan Hawke: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Harry Melling: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Robert Aramayo would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Robert Aramayo
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf Robert Aramayo has won Leading Actor at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
