What was "BAFTA Film Awards: Best Leading Actress Winner" and why did it matter?
BAFTA Film Awards: Best Leading Actress Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Jessie Buckley led the market at 99% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include Andrea Riseborough at 26%, Chase Infiniti at 26%, Cynthia Erivo at 26%.
What moved the odds on "BAFTA Film Awards: Best Leading Actress Winner"?
Jessie Buckley held the lead at 99% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Jessie Buckley, Andrea Riseborough at 26% and Chase Infiniti at 26% and Cynthia Erivo at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
What were the final odds for "BAFTA Film Awards: Best Leading Actress Winner" across platforms?
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Jessie Buckley: 98¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. Andrea Riseborough: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Chase Infiniti: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Cynthia Erivo: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
What did 99% odds for Jessie Buckley mean?
A price of 99¢ meant the market estimated a 99% chance that Jessie Buckley would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 99¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 1% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
