Live prediction market odds for BAFTA Film Awards: Best Original Screenplay Winner. Compare prices across Kalshi and Polymarket.
MARKET RESOLVEDKalshi / Polymarket
Resolved 2026-02-22
This market resolved on 2026-02-22. Sinners was the officially declared outcome. Prior to resolution, the market peaked at 100%.
This market has resolved.
| Candidate |  |  |
|---|---|---|
SinnersWINNER | 99% | 100% |
A House of Dynamite | 1% | 50% |
Blue Moon | 1% | 50% |
I Swear | 1% | 50% |
Is This Thing On | 1% | 50% |
It Was Just an Accident | 1% | 50% |
Marty Supreme | 1% | 50% |
Sentimental Value | 1% | 50% |
The Secret Agent | 1% | 50% |
Weapons | 1% | 50% |
BAFTA Film Awards: Best Original Screenplay Winner was a prediction market event tracked across 2 platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket). Sinners led the market at 100% implied probability before resolution. Other contenders include A House of Dynamite at 26%, Blue Moon at 26%, I Swear at 26%.
Sinners held the lead at 100% implied probability heading into resolution. Behind Sinners, A House of Dynamite at 26% and Blue Moon at 26% and I Swear at 26% were the next closest contenders. The 49.0% cross-platform spread suggested platforms were pricing new information differently, creating potential trading opportunities.
Here were the closing odds across Kalshi, Polymarket: Sinners: 99¢ on Kalshi, 100¢ on Polymarket. A House of Dynamite: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. Blue Moon: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. I Swear: 1¢ on Kalshi, 50¢ on Polymarket. The 49.0% spread across platforms highlights where markets disagreed — a gap traders can exploit by buying low on one platform and selling high on another.
A price of 100¢ meant the market estimated a 100% chance that Sinners would be the outcome. Traders who bought at 100¢ and held through resolution received $1.00 per share — a 0% return on their position. Those on the wrong side received $0.
Sinners
99.5% avg
Official settlement criteria, resolution sources, and edge cases across Kalshi.
KalshiIf A House of Dynamite has won Original Screenplay at the 79th BAFTA Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
